Luminor expert Gints Belevics: this year will be good for investors

“The stock markets ended 2017 on a high note – investments in this class of assets ensured higher return than on average the last 30 years," indicates Luminor economic expert Gints Belevics. “This year seems to be very good for investors as well, as the global economy is growing and the profits of the companies have an increasing tendency.”

However, we have to remember that the economy develops cyclically and the increase for several years might be followed by a decline. For the time being the fundamental factors do not show that the decline might be expected in the nearest future, yet many things might be influenced by geopolitical situation in the world. The increasing prices for raw materials, in their turn, might hinder the economic development, particularly in Europe, which last year developed faster than expected.

In 2017, we talked much about the development of cryptocurrency and the rise in its price promoted the interest of society in this type of investment. We have to remember that investments in cryptocurrencies are not regulated in any way, which is why there are some safety risks. Likewise, the mechanisms that form their price are not clear, so the fluctuations within one day might be enormous. We may not exclude that in the future some of these cryptocurrencies might become stable and serve as a payment or investment mean. Blockchain technology, which underlies for example, Bitcoin, might as well be used more outside the cryptocurrency world.

Main financial markets trends in December and during the last year:

• 2017 has witnessed 3 times higher return on world equities than the average annual gain of the last 30 years
• Euro appreciation against the dollar by 13.8% was a significant headwind for euro-based investors, significantly reducing the gains
• Most bonds provided very low or negative return in EUR due to adverse foreign exchange movements
• Crypto currencies gained much attention due to astonishing returns, but bear significant risks and are impossible to be valued fundamentally
• Stocks are expected to rise in 2018 but volatility may increase
• World equities experience a drawdown of 7.1% on average each year, but in 73% of years the return is positive
• Bonds will mostly provide diversification benefits, as in 2018 their rate of return is likely to be low
• Potential risks in 2018: inflation, investor sentiment, natural disasters or conflicts

Read more in the January issue of Luminor financial markets update.

For media contacts: Lita Juberte-Krumina