As a year draws to an end, people evaluate what has been achieved during the past year and try to forecast events in future.  The latest DNB Latvian Barometer study, too, focused on how people view the development of Latvia’s economic situation in 2011, what changes occurred in the country because of the snap parliamentary election, and what kind of year people expect 2012 to be.  It is important that most people are not preparing for a second wave of the economic crisis – a wave which has been much discussed in the past.  Asked, however, about which predictions for 2012 will not come to pass, people say that it is unlikely that the world will end or that politicians will keep the reform promises which they actively made during the latter half of 2011.

Despite the approach of one of the most popular holidays in Latvia (as seen in the results of the 41st DNB Latvian Barometer study) – one which is often linked to pleasant emotions – the overall index of the public mood declined by three points over the course of the month.  The future evaluation index is -7, and that is lowest indicator since the beginning of the past summer.

More negative evaluations are also seen in indicators about how the situation in the country is developing and what people think about the future of the country’s economic condition.  In both cases, the indicators are the lowest during the last half-year.  True, public opinion about the quality and effectiveness of government operations improved a bit in November, this standing in contrast to the aforementioned indicators.  The percentage of respondents who are satisfied with the government’s work rose by four percentage points to 15%.  What is more, fewer respondents said that they are “completely dissatisfied” with the government’s operations (33% in November, as opposed to 42% in October).  All in all, however, this is still one of the indicators in which public views are the most critical.

It does have to be said that the results of the second part of the DNB Latvian Barometer confirm the ability of respondents to look at the socioeconomic situation in a slightly ironic way.  Asked to indicate which predictions which have been made about events in 2012 will not come to pass, a majority of respondents said that the least likely possibility is that the world will come to an end (62%).  The second most popular answer was that politicians will not keep their reform promises (24%).  Interestingly, 18% of respondents do not believe that the “zero-based declarations” will be instituted next year – this despite the fact that Parliament was considering the relevant law during the time of the study, and now it has been approved.  People also think that it is impossible that there will be a second wave of the crisis, that utility service tariffs will once again increase, or that the EU will reduce co-financing for farmers (12-16%), while only 7% of respondents think that it is unlikely that there will be another round of budget consolidation next year.

Asked about what might happen in 2012 that will be recorded in the pages of Latvian history, 46% of respondents pointed to endless emigration, 27% spoke about the possibility of unpopular government decisions, and one-quarter believed that the economic situation will become more harsh again and that this might lead to public protests.  Noisy trials of oligarchs were an important subject in mid-2011, but only 10% of respondents in the latest survey felt that these are likely.  6% of DNB Latvian Barometer respondents expect more honest politics.

It must be added that unlike the one-quarter of respondents who are expecting a second round of the economic crisis, more than one-half of respondents (54%) believe that they will have approximately as much money next year as they have had this year (a much more positive indicator than in 2009 and in late 2010).  64% said that they are not doing anything special to prepare for a new deterioration of the economic situation.  True, 9% of Latvia’s residents say that they are looking for or have already found a way of earning additional income, 7% have set aside money for a “rainy day,” and 6% do not believe that the “second wave” of the crisis will occur.

Economic expert Raita Karnīte: “What is interesting here is that people do expect a deterioration of the economic situation in 2012, but most believe that the material condition of their families will not get worse.  They do not, however, offer answers about what exactly will cause the economic situation to deteriorate.  These answers indicate a difference between the evaluation of ‘the state’ and ‘me in the state’.”

Respondents were also asked about forecasts about economic development that were made in 2010, and they were requested to say which ones did or did not come to pass.  Most respondents said that the economic situation did not improve and that talk about an end to the crisis was premature (44%), while 23% said that the economic situation improved a bit, but not to the point where it can be said that the crisis has come to an end, and another 22% said that the crisis became even more severe in 2011.  Only 2% of respondents agreed that the crisis was finally overcome in 2011.

One of the loudest and potentially most influential political events in 2011 was the snap parliamentary election in September.  A few months after the election and the establishment of a new government, the DNB Latvian Barometer study asked people whether and how the election changed the country’s political environment.  28% of people were sceptical about this in advance of the election in August, and by contrast, 53% now say that the election did not bring about what they had hoped.  14% believe that the situation is worse than before the election (only 4% predicted that in August), an equal percentage of respondents say that the public will become more active and demand more from politicians (25% hoped so in August), and 9% argue that politicians are doing better work now because they are aware of the fact that Parliament can be dissolved.  It might be added that 32% of respondents in the August study predicted this latter thought, which means that the percentage of people whose hopes in this regard have been fulfilled has dropped by 23%.

The monthly DNB Latvian Barometer is a recognised sociological study, and its purpose is always to study issues that are of public importance at a given point in time.  The study also includes an ongoing set of permanent questions so as to track changes in the public mood from month to month.

"DNB Latvijas barometrs" pētījums Nr.43. (22.12.2011.) Gada kopsavilkums un prognozes.