Next Thursday, December 8th, Nordea will publish the latest Nordea Economic Outlook. The new issue of the publication will include updated economic forecasts and analyses of the Nordic, the Baltic and global economies.
Our chief economist in Baltics Zygimantas Mauricas and economists from Estonia Tõnu Palm and Latvia Gints Belevics will share their insights about the latest trends of the Baltic and global economy.
Discussions will include topics:
Baltics: Baltic States implemented austerity policies during the post-crisis period and now can boast having one of the lowest public deficit and debt levels in the EU. Having no macroeconomic imbalances Baltic economies are well positioned for solid and sustainable growth, but the growth path is littered with hurdles. Negative spill-overs from Russian economic crisis, Chinese financial turmoil and Brexit prevent Baltic economies from utilising their full growth potential. If sustained, this may inhibit an ongoing convergence with the West and pose threat in creating Scandinavian style wealth economies.
Lithuania: it successfully overcame external economic hurdles but failed to create a modern welfare state. High income inequality, a sizeable shadow economy, widespread tax evasion, low social security spending and vast regional differences preclude many citizens from benefiting from the economic recovery. Negative side effects include emigration and social exclusion, which may endanger the long-term economic development.
Latvia: Latvian households have been enjoying strong wage growth and close-to- zero inflation, sharply increasing their purchasing power. But this bonanza is about to end as wage growth slows and inflation picks up. Rising inflation is not necessarily bad news, since it may revive the dormant housing market.
Estonia: Cyclical recovery in Estonian industry will be supported by export demand and rising prices. The new government will add stimulus to the economy. Dividends rate will be cut to competitive 14% level. Estonian industry is heavily dependent on ongoing recovery in the Euro are and Nordic demand. More than 70% of manufacturing goes for exports, with the Nordics share at 40% of exports.
The Online seminar will take place on December 8th starting 10 AM until 11 AM (EET).
Every quarter Nordea Markets present Economic Outlook of the Nordic, Baltic and global trends, economic forecasts and possible risk scenarios.